If I could choose who to be right now, I'd have to pick Bush. It's his to lose. Based on everything I've been watching (and believe me, I've been watching it VERY close) Kerry not been making the gains he's needed to win. According to polls anyway.

Since 2000, the only state that appears to have arguably flipped to democrat is New Hampshire. Bush is holding Fla, and he has picking up support in Ohio, most polls over the last week have him up 3-4 points. What's interesting is it looks like New Mexico, Wisconsin, Iowa have flipped Republican this time. Even more bad news for Kerry is that Bush has been making significant gains in PA over the last week. Gallup had him up +4 yesterday, the caveat being that they had Kerry up in Ohio.

Ohio is a long shot for Kerry regardless of how close the polls say it is; in Congress we have more GOP than Dem, 2 GOP senators, a GOP Governor, and a GOP majority legislature. The DNC has been bringing people in from out of state for their Get Out The Vote efforts, whereas the GOP has an extremely well organized grass roots machine going this year, a sign that the Dems are not well organized at a state level, and they are lacking support. Plus Kerry has been campaigning heavily in counties he should win handily... that's a sure sign of trouble. Not to mention that Bush has not been spending nearly as much time here, and when he does, like Kerry its in counties Gore won in 2000. That's a sign of confidence.

My Prediction Nationally: Bush picks up New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Iowa. He holds Florida, and Ohio, making the Electoral College Bush: 296, Kerry 242. Given that math, he could still lose Ohio and win. 276 - 262

Kerry has to have Ohio, and Wisconsin or Iowa to win. If he loses Ohio, he's done. If by some miracle Bush takes Pa, and it's in play now, Kerry is really cooked.

I could be wrong, and all these new voters would have to heavily swing for Kerry. What I'm not looking forward to is the aftermath. If its close at all, I'm afraid it's going to drag on into Dec. again. I really am not looking forward to that possibility.

I admit I'm a Bush supporter, but my analysis is based primarily on the weight of the polls over the last 2 months. The only time Kerry led was after the first Debate. since then he's not broken 47% on the average. I was a Dole supporter, and I knew based on the polls back then that he would lose.

The word from the Middle Cheese according to the Kerry Spot on NRO says that BC04 numbers were terrible in Ohio on Sunday (that has been since down played by that blogger). I have a hard time believing that we'd have such a dramatic swing after such a good week with no significant news to drive opinion the other way. There have been a lot of GOP and Church related activities over the weekend that were specific to the election. Republicans in Ohio were not home Sunday Night. We are all out trying to GOTV! I think the FOX and Gallup poll hold to this theory as well. It's a spike all coupled with the usual bump Kerry gets on the weekend, just more so because of the 72 Hour effort being put forth by the GOP.

I've voted in every election since 84, and never in my life have I seen such an organized effort by any party here in Ohio. Never before have I seen a Sunday night concert of prayer for an election. Based on that; I predict a huge turnout for Bush here in the Buckeye state.