|
Rick's Political Blog |
My Favorite Sites |
|
2004-10-22 - 11:52 a.m.
News and Views Al Gore In
Florida.... OMG!!! This is so bad for the GOP! We are certain to lose now!
We're doomed! In reality I think it's great. It was largely because of the great distaste
for the 2000 debacle that caused Jeb Bush to be so overwhelmingly reelected in
2002. I'm sure the Dems are thinking that people need to be reminded, and that
will increase voter turnout... and I'm sure it will.... :) Thanks Al! Okay folks, a little poll analysis: Presently, according to
RealClearPolitics, here is the average national spread:
Advantage: Bush Now here is the Electoral Breakdown:
BUSH 227, KERRY 189
Advantage: Bush NM - has an average
spread of 1.5 favoring Bush MN - has an average
spread of 1.3 favoring Kerry IA - has an average
spread of 3.5 favoring Bush WI - has an average
spread of 1.2 favoring Bush MI - has an average
spread of 1.3 favoring Kerry OH
- Is totally deadlocked.
Just a note, RCP does not calculate polls taken by organizations affiliated with
political parties. If this were the case it would have about an average spread
of 1.5 favoring Bush PA- has an average
spread of 2.5 favoring Kerry FL - has an average
spread of 1.0 favoring Bush NH
- is deadlocked
Based on the
slight leans per state, I have to conclude that without including Ohio or
New Hampshire: BUSH 276, KERRY 237 Giving the fractional
leans in Ohio or New Hampshire: BUSH 276, KERRY 262
With this analysis we can see that it is possible to win the election without
winning Ohio. This election is the President's to lose. Historically in
his position no incumbent has ever lost.
Stay positive people! Kerry has a larger mountain to climb than "W" does.
More Later ~Rick
|
My Reads:
onlylevski |