Rick's Political Blog

Currently

Not Currently

Our Lovely Host

Personal Blog

Get your own
 diary at DiaryLand.com!

The Guestbook

Read Notes

Leave Notes

Rick 101

Why I support "W"

Rings

previous - next

My Favorite Sites

DRUDGE REPORT

PollingReport.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

     

2004-10-22 - 11:52 a.m.

An Update!

New Page 1

News and Views


Al Gore In Florida.... OMG!!! This is so bad for the GOP! We are certain to lose now! We're doomed!

In reality I think it's great. It was largely because of the great distaste for the 2000 debacle that caused Jeb Bush to be so overwhelmingly reelected in 2002. I'm sure the Dems are thinking that people need to be reminded, and that will increase voter turnout... and I'm sure it will.... :) Thanks Al!


Okay folks, a little poll analysis: Presently, according to RealClearPolitics, here is the average national spread:

Advantage: Bush

Now here is the Electoral Breakdown:

BUSH 227, KERRY 189

Advantage: Bush

 

NM - has an average spread of 1.5 favoring Bush

MN - has an average spread of 1.3 favoring Kerry

IA - has an average spread of 3.5 favoring Bush

WI - has an average spread of 1.2 favoring Bush

MI - has an average spread of 1.3 favoring Kerry

OH - Is totally deadlocked.

  • Just a note, RCP does not calculate polls taken by organizations affiliated with political parties. If this were the case it would have about an average spread of 1.5 favoring Bush

PA- has an average spread of 2.5 favoring Kerry

FL - has an average spread of 1.0 favoring Bush

NH - is deadlocked

 

Based on the slight leans per state, I have to conclude that without including Ohio or New Hampshire:

  • BUSH 276, KERRY 237

Giving the fractional leans in Ohio or New Hampshire:

  • BUSH 276, KERRY 262

With this analysis we can see that it is possible to win the election without winning Ohio. This election is the President's to lose.  Historically in his position no incumbent has ever lost.

 

Stay positive people! Kerry has a larger mountain to climb than "W" does.

 

More Later ~Rick

previous - next

about me - read my profile! read other Diar
yLand diaries! recommend my diary to a friend! Get
 your own fun + free diary at DiaryLand.com!

     

My Reads:

onlylevski
nightdragon
conpalabras
zarfmeister
strangerlucy
jonnybox
bassclargrrl
maineland
plastroncafe
savecraig
ana-warda
cynedra
gerg69
prettytear
erlenweg6
enondoiel
squirrelx
kelifairy
eastofeden
squirrelrat
kimbarley
cryondemand
guitkoko
holidays
almostaflake
starlight42
treewillow
kimbaleigh
janie12975
nacwolin
ahmetai
sheepdip
sweet-indigo
widower
nixtress
minstrelite
jcjohnna
shibbykiddo
batten
boxx9000
beatpoetgrrl
moodymelinda
soul-glimpse
res6564
irisheyes70
nonannies
chubbychic
bebelua
giantkiller