mr-knowitall's Diaryland Diary
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An Update!
News and Views
Al Gore In Florida.... OMG!!! This is so bad for the GOP! We are certain to lose now! We're doomed!
In reality I think it's great. It was largely because of the great distaste for the 2000 debacle that caused Jeb Bush to be so overwhelmingly reelected in 2002. I'm sure the Dems are thinking that people need to be reminded, and that will increase voter turnout... and I'm sure it will.... :) Thanks Al!
Okay folks, a little poll analysis: Presently, according to RealClearPolitics, here is the average national spread:
Advantage: Bush
Now here is the Electoral Breakdown:
BUSH 227, KERRY 189
Advantage: Bush
NM - has an average spread of 1.5 favoring Bush
MN - has an average spread of 1.3 favoring Kerry
IA - has an average spread of 3.5 favoring Bush
WI - has an average spread of 1.2 favoring Bush
MI - has an average spread of 1.3 favoring Kerry
OH - Is totally deadlocked.
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Just a note, RCP does not calculate polls taken by organizations affiliated with political parties. If this were the case it would have about an average spread of 1.5 favoring Bush
PA- has an average spread of 2.5 favoring Kerry
FL - has an average spread of 1.0 favoring Bush
NH - is deadlocked
Based on the slight leans per state, I have to conclude that without including Ohio or New Hampshire:
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BUSH 276, KERRY 237
Giving the fractional leans in Ohio or New Hampshire:
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BUSH 276, KERRY 262
With this analysis we can see that it is possible to win the election without winning Ohio. This election is the President's to lose. Historically in his position no incumbent has ever lost.
Stay positive people! Kerry has a larger mountain to climb than "W" does.
More Later ~Rick
11:52 a.m. - 2004-10-22
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