mr-knowitall's Diaryland Diary

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Putting it in perspective

Hmm, great depression type growth huh? Job growth is always a lagging indicator of a recovering economy. The statistics from the BLS just don't agree with John Kerry.

Here are the facts from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. The numbers for July have employment at 131.272 million jobs. Compare that to July 1996 there were 119.875 million jobs when Clinton was reelected. We still have significantly more jobs that we did in 1996. Depite a recession, terrorist attacks, and corporate scandals: unemployment is still only at 5.5 %. Compared to unemployment in the summer of 96, it's following the same trend... downward. And by the way 5.5% is miniscule.

Furthermore, in 29 months (from March 01 to August 03) the economy lost 2.718 million jobs. In the last 12 months we've gained more than half of those jobs back. (1.48 million jobs) That's 54% of the loss in 41% of the time. That is outstanding.

Let's put it in perspective folks: it's estimated that unemployment was between 25-30% in the 30's. It was at it's peak during the Reagan administration at 10.2 % in 1982. We've not seen numbers that bad since. 5.5% unemployment is a good place to be, comparatively speaking.

I have to strongly disagree with Mr. Kerry just based on the above information, and other research I've done. The 'facts' he stated don't stand up to scrutiny.
Consider this: (The following is a copy/paste)

The economy has posted job gains for each of the last eleven months - creating 1.5 million jobs since August 2003, including 32,000 (preliminary) new jobs in July according to payroll survey statistics released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS also released new household survey data showing a much larger gain of 629,000 new jobs in July, with a total of 2.3 million jobs added since August 2003.

The national unemployment rate declined to 5.5% in July - down 0.8 percentage point from a peak of 6.3% in June 2003 and the lowest rate since October 2001. At 5.5%, the unemployment rate is below the average of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.
Employment over the last year was up in 46 of the 50 states and the unemployment rate was down in all regions and in 47 of the 50 states.

The manufacturing sector, which started to decline in mid-2000, has added 91,000 jobs since its low in January.
America's standard of living is on the rise. Real after-tax incomes are up by 10% since December 2000 - substantially better than the gains following the last recession. Since the President's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, personal consumption levels have risen substantially.

Consumer confidence is at its highest level in 2 years. The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence increased nearly 30 index points in the past 12 months, from 77 last July to 106.1 this July. � The national homeownership rate, in the second quarter of 2004, was at an all time high of 69.2 percent. Minority homeownership set a new record of 51% in the second quarter, up 0.2 percentage point from the first quarter and up 2.1 percentage points from a year ago.

Core inflation remains low by historical standards. � Mortgage rates remain near historic lows, making home buying easier and more affordable.

 

4:41 p.m. - 2004-08-13

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