I've been watching the opinion polls very closely for the last 3 months, and an interesting trend has been developing... the more people see of John Kerry, the less they like him, and the more comfortable they seem to be with Bush.

Trends based on my analysis of the data provided at the website: electoral-vote.com are very revealing, and should cause the Kerry campaign grave concern because no incumbent has ever lost with these kind numbers going into their convention.

I have my own Excel data and graphs based on the data from the above mentioned site available upon request. Email me and I'll send you a copy.

In this prediction, Kerry was as high as 332, and Bush was as low as 195 going into the Democratic Convention. Since his speech Kerry has lost 90 predicted Electoral College votes, and Bush has gained 85 making the race 280 to 242 Bush.

This is a very dramatic shift, and not just in this collective: Bush's approval have been trending upward into the 50's, and his numbers on the issues are getting better, most notably on the war on terror and the Economy. Comparing the above referenced ABC polls taken on 8/1 and on 8/30 Bush has made significant gains on Kerry; in fact in every area Kerry has lost ground, and Bush has gained.

Terrorism 8/1 - Bush 48%, Kerry 45%

Terrorism 8/30 - Bush 56%, Kerry 38% - Bush +8, Kerry -7

Education 8/1 - Bush 39%, Kerry 52%

Education 8/30 - Bush 47%, Kerry 47% - Bush +8, Kerry -5

Economy 8/1 - Bush 41%, Kerry 52%

Economy 8/30 - Bush 48%, Kerry 47% - Bush +7, Kerry -5

Iraq 8/1 - Bush 46%, Kerry 48%

Iraq 8/30 - Bush 52%, Kerry 44% - Bush +6, Kerry -4

So my democrat friends, your candidate is really getting into some trouble. History shows that this scenario is bad. Kerry has been losing since the convention, and people are beginning to make up their minds, and it’s not going his way. Face it... the American people don't like your candidate. It's not just us mind numbed robot republicans saying so.